Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Israel
  • Iraq
  • Oman
  • Bahrain
  • Kuwait
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Saudi Arabia
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Singapore
  • Tajikistan
  • India
  • Bangladesh

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $673,250$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{847,216.7}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 200.3)}}\) (asimptote \(847,216.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $37,832$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53,424.0}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 216.3)}}\) (asimptote \(53,424.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $120,265$ on 2020-11-07

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $318,949$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{446,485.5}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 211.8)}}\) (asimptote \(446,485.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,664$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88,214.2}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 436.2)}}\) (asimptote \(88,214.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,812$ on 2020-11-07

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $496,019$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{554,945.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 187.5)}}\) (asimptote \(554,945.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11,283$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,192.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 159.4)}}\) (asimptote \(11,192.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58,810$ on 2020-11-07

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $117,167$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,309.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 134.9)}}\) (asimptote \(105,309.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,286$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,412.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 156.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,412.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,513$ on 2020-11-07

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,264$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,413.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 168.8)}}\) (asimptote \(90,413.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $329$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{355.8}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 159.3)}}\) (asimptote \(355.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,172$ on 2020-11-07

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $131,205$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{131,153.2}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 158.0)}}\) (asimptote \(131,153.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $808$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{741.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 102.3)}}\) (asimptote \(741.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,508$ on 2020-11-07

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $62,304$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,036.2}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 125.0)}}\) (asimptote \(50,036.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,172$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,170.9}{1 + 10^{-0.900 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,170.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,726$ on 2020-11-07

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $350,229$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{339,908.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(339,908.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,525$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,513.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 125.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,513.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,738$ on 2020-11-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Singapore recovered 100%
Israel recovered 88%
Saudi Arabia recovered 88%
Tajikistan recovered 67%
India recovered 50%
Bangladesh recovered 34%
Nepal recovered 24%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $58,054$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,814.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 118.6)}}\) (asimptote \(56,814.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27.0}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(27.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58$ on 2020-11-07

Tajikistan⮸

Population $9,537,645$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,294$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,558.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 60.0)}}\) (asimptote \(10,558.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83.2}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(83.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $617$ on 2020-11-07

India⮸

Population $1,380,004,385$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,507,754$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,569,514.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 166.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,569,514.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-07 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $126,121$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{144,515.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 152.3)}}\) (asimptote \(144,515.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $512,665$ on 2020-11-07

Bangladesh⮸

Population $164,689,383$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $418,764$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{402,546.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 105.5)}}\) (asimptote \(402,546.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-07 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,049$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,134.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 117.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,134.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $76,147$ on 2020-11-07