Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $673,250$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{847,216.7}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 200.3)}}\) (asimptote \(847,216.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $37,832$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53,424.0}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 216.3)}}\) (asimptote \(53,424.0\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $120,265$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $318,949$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{446,485.5}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 211.8)}}\) (asimptote \(446,485.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,664$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88,214.2}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 436.2)}}\) (asimptote \(88,214.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,812$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $496,019$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{554,945.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 187.5)}}\) (asimptote \(554,945.2\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $11,283$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,192.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 159.4)}}\) (asimptote \(11,192.9\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $58,810$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $117,167$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,309.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 134.9)}}\) (asimptote \(105,309.8\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,286$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,412.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 156.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,412.2\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,513$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $83,264$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,413.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 168.8)}}\) (asimptote \(90,413.7\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $329$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{355.8}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 159.3)}}\) (asimptote \(355.8\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,172$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $131,205$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{131,153.2}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 158.0)}}\) (asimptote \(131,153.2\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $808$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{741.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 102.3)}}\) (asimptote \(741.9\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,508$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $62,304$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,036.2}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 125.0)}}\) (asimptote \(50,036.2\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,172$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,170.9}{1 + 10^{-0.900 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,170.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,726$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $350,229$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{339,908.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(339,908.6\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,525$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,513.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 125.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,513.8\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,738$ on 2020-11-07